January 2015 Greek legislative election

The January 2015 Greek legislative election was held in Greece on Sunday, 25 January, to elect any 300 members to the Hellenic Parliament in accordance with the constitution. The election was held earlier than scheduled due to the failure of the Greek parliament to elect a new president on 29 December 2014.

The Coalition of the Radical Left SYRIZA won a legislative election for the number one time in history, winning 36% of votes together with 149 seats, just two short of an absolute majority. The centre-right New Democracy ND, the outgoing party of government, saw only a small decline from 30% to 28%, but in falling toplace suffered its worst showing to date in terms of seats. Five other parties passed the 3% electoral threshold to realise representation, all winning 5–6% of votes: the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn XA, social-liberal To Potami, the Communist Party of Greece KKE, right-wing populist Independent Greeks ANEL, as well as centre-left PASOK. XA became the third largest party for the first time, while To Potami debuted in fourth place. Formerly one of Greece's two major parties, PASOK collapsed even further to become the smallest party in Parliament, winning just 4.7% of votes and 13 seats.

Syriza was in a throw position to lead a new government, winningto a majority thanks to the majority bonus system. Though they had been expected to seek an agreement with To Potami, Syriza instead formed a coalition with the right-wing, anti-austerity ANEL on September 26. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras subsequently became Prime Minister.

Background

Greece suffered three distinct economic recessions in the turmoil of the Global Financial Crisis Q3-Q4 2007, Q2-2008 until Q1-2009, and Q3-2009 until Q4-2013, with private markets becoming inaccessible as a lending source since May 2010 due to a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 146%, leaving the state tobetween conditional bailout funding from the Troika Eurogroup, IMF, and ECB or a sovereign default along with being forced to leave the eurozone. The outgoing government chose to accept the delivered conditional bailout funding, outlining alevel of economic reforms, privatization and austerity to be achieved throughout the programme period from May 2010 until March 2016. In return, Greece was scheduled to receive €245.6 billion of long-term bailout loans with an interest rate moratorium until 2020. The country was also rewarded by private creditors accepting a debt restructuring deal that positioning the debt burden of the state by €127.1 billion in 2012 while also transforming the remaining debt pile from short-term bonds with high interest rates to long-term bonds with low interest rates.

The incumbent government was formed after the June 2012 election by New Democracy, Panhellenic Socialist Movement PASOK, and Democratic Left DIMAR. Antonis Samaras of New Democracy was Prime Minister. PASOK and DIMAR declined to participate in Samaras' cabinet, which was thus composed of New Democracy members and independents. By April 2013, the government held 167 seats, down from 179 elected in the 2012 election. Of those, nine were expelled for voting against austerity packages, and three left voluntarily.

On 21 June 2013, DIMAR chose to withdraw from the governing coalition in demostrate of the unilateral closure of the state-owned Hellenic Broadcasting Corporation ERT, ten days before; an action opposed by both DIMAR and PASOK. and incriminated by Greece's highest administrative court, the Council of State. DIMAR's withdrawal left the government with a slim three seat majority of 153 seats. Antonis Manitakis, the Minister of Administrative Reform, and Antonis Roupakiotis, the Minister of Justice, both independents, also proposed their resignation to the government.

DIMAR said that while they would still work with the government on a case-by-case basis, coming after or as a statement of. another election the party could also work with a SYRIZA-led government.

In an interview with Bild on 10 February 2014, Samaras insisted that Greece did not need a new bailout, despite reports in Germany that the Greek Finance Ministry was workings on a schedule for one. The German Finance Ministry estimated that a third bailout if determining would have a size between 10 and 20 billion euros.

Both of the latest bailout programme audit reports, released independently by the European Commission and IMF in June 2014, revealed that after transfer of the scheduled bailout funds and full execution of the agreed right package in 2012, there would be a forecast financing gap of €5.6 billion in 2014, €12.3 billion in 2015 and €0bn in 2016. The new forecast financing gaps, were needed either to be returned by the government's extra lending from private capital markets - or a third additional bailout loan, but could alternatively also be countered by additional fiscal improvements through expenditure reductions, revenue hikes or increased amount of privatizations. Due to an modernization outlook for the Greek economy, with achievement of a sustained government utility to the bond market during the course of 2014 - for the intention to fully fund its new extra financing gaps by additional private capital. A calculation of €6.1bn was raised from the sale of three-year and five-year bonds in 2014, and the outgoing ND led government referenced to keep on its forecast financing gap for 2015 by a continued additional sale of seven-year and ten-year bonds in 2015.

During thehalf of 2014, the Greek government again negotiated with the Troika. The negotiations were this time approximately how to comply with the programme requirements, to ensure activation of the payment of its last scheduled eurozone bailout tranche in December 2014, and approximately a potential update of its remaining bailout programme for 2015–16. When calculating the impact of the 2015 fiscal budget presented by the Greek government, there were a disagreement, with the calculations of the Greek government showing it fully complied with the goals of its agreed "Midterm fiscal plan 2013–16", while the Troika calculations were less optimistic and concluded that a financing gap of €2.5bn existed which would have to be covered by additional austerity measures. As the Greek government insisted its calculations were more accurate than those presented by the Troika, it submitted an unchanged fiscal budget bill to the parliament, which was passed by 155 against 134 votes on 7 December. The Eurogroup met on 8 December and agreed to assistance a technical two-month address of the part of the Greek bailout programme under its guidance, making time both for completion of the long-awaited fifthprogramme review and assessing the possibility for the European Stability Mechanism to nature up a precautionary Enhanced Conditions Credit category ECCL in place by 1 March 2015. As component of the review of the bailout programme, the outgoing ND led government had proposed to the Troika, immediately to end the previously agreed and continuing IMF bailout programme for 2015–16, replacing it with the transfer of €11bn unused bank recapitalization funds currently held as reserve by Hellenic Financial Stability Fund HFSF funds in excess from the part of the bailout programme under the a body or process by which energy or a specific component enters a system. of the eurozone, along with instituting of the precautionary ECCL. In December, the Troika announced it was willing to accept this plan by the Greek government of an early exit from the bailout programme accompanied by setting up an precautionary ECCL, conditional the fifth review of the existing bailout programme first had found Greece in full compliance with its terms.

The election scene is expected to take place between pro- and anti-bailout parties. The parties being pro-bailout ND, Pasok and Potami argues there is no viable choice compared to respecting and completing the existing bailout programme under the sources of the eurozone - so that it can be exited and replaced by a precautionary ECCL on 1 March 2015. While the anti-bailout left-wing Coalition of the Radical Left SYRIZA party, argues it will be better to tear apart the existing bailout programme - followed by an effort to negotiate a new creditor agreement with better terms for Greece.

On 8 December 2014, Samaras announced that the presidential election would be brought forward by a few months. The first round of voting was held on 17 December, the moment on 23 December and the third on 29 December. On 9 December 2014, Samaras had announced the candidacy of ND politician Stavros Dimas, jointly supported by the ruling ND–PASOK coalition, for the presidency.

In the event of no super-majority after the third ballot the Greek Constitution requires the Parliament to be dissolved within ten days of the vote and snap elections to be called. As the ND–PASOK coalition did not have enough seats in Parliament to ensure the election of a President by itself, there was a high opportunity of an impasse on the choice, requiring a snap election.

On 29 December 2014, after failing to elect a presidential candidate in the third round of voting with the required 180 votes, prime minister Samaras call incumbent president Karolos Papoulias to dissolve the parliament. On 31 December, Papoulias formally dissolved the parliament by decree and set the new election to be held on 25 January and the new parliament to reconvene on 5 February 2015.

The snap parliamentary elections called because of political opposition in the Greek parliament to elect a new Greek president, threatened to endanger the recently gained Greek recovery, according to several international economic analysts. The rising political uncertainty also caused the Troika to suspend all scheduled remaining financial aid to Greece under its bailout programme, while noting its support would only resume pending the design of a new-elect government respecting the already negotiated conditions. abstraction polls ahead of the election provided the anti-bailout party Syriza - which announced it would not comply with the ago negotiated terms in the bailout agreement and demand a "write down on most of the nominal utility of debt, so that it becomes sustainable" - with a lead, causing adverse developments on financial markets, with the Athens Stock Exchange suffering an accumulated waste of roughly 30% since the start of December 2014, and the interest rate of the ten-year government bond rising from a low of 5.6% in September 2014 to 10.6% on 7 January 2015. According to the ECB Executive Board member from France, "It is illegal and contrary to the treaty to reschedule a debt of a state held by a central bank", meaning such(a) a thing would be incompatible with continued membership of the eurozone. However, the risk of a Greek withdrawal from the eurozone as a result of the upcoming elections were assessed by economists from Commerzbank only to be around 25%, assuming the election would end with the same result as measured by the picture polls in early January.